Solar Payback by State in 2026: Where Panels Still Pay Off

Key finding: With the 30% federal solar tax credit gone (it expired December 31, 2025), rooftop solar now takes about 18 years on average to pay for itself in cash — up from roughly 12 with the credit. It still pays off well in high-electricity states like Hawaii (7.5 yrs), California (9.4 yrs), and the Northeast — but in cheap-power, cloudy states like Washington and Oregon, a cash system may never break even within its 25-year life.

We calculated the 2026 payback period for a typical 7 kW rooftop solar system in every U.S. state, using each state's real residential electricity price and its NREL solar yield — with no federal tax credit, because it no longer exists. Here's the full 50-state ranking, fastest to slowest.

The three findings that matter

1. Electricity price beats sunshine. The states where solar pays back fastest aren't the sunniest — they're the ones with the most expensive power. Hawaii, California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island top the list because their high rates mean every self-consumed kilowatt-hour avoids a big bill. Sunny-but-cheap states like Texas and Arizona rank mid-pack.

2. The credit's expiry added roughly 5–6 years to payback everywhere. A 30% discount on upfront cost was doing a lot of heavy lifting. Without it, the math is materially worse in 2026 — which is exactly why you should distrust any calculator still baking the old credit in.

3. In a handful of states, cash solar no longer clearly pays. In Washington and Oregon — low electricity prices plus limited sun — a cash-purchased system can take 24–29 years to break even, longer than the panels' useful life. There, solar makes sense mainly for energy independence or if rates rise, not for pure ROI.

Full ranking: solar payback in all 50 states + D.C. (2026)

Payback for a 7 kW system at $3.00/watt, no federal credit, 50% self-consumption at the retail rate plus a conservative 9¢/kWh net-metering credit. Click any state for the full breakdown.

#	State	Elec. price	Annual savings	Payback
1	Hawaii	41¢	$2,800	7.5 yrs
2	California	32¢	$2,224	9.4 yrs
3	Connecticut	30¢	$1,775	11.8 yrs
4	Massachusetts	30¢	$1,775	11.8 yrs
5	Rhode Island	28¢	$1,684	12.5 yrs
6	Nevada	15¢	$1,470	14.3 yrs
7	New Hampshire	24¢	$1,444	14.5 yrs
8	Arizona	14¢	$1,409	14.9 yrs
9	Maine	23¢	$1,400	15.0 yrs
10	New York	23¢	$1,400	15.0 yrs
11	New Mexico	14¢	$1,369	15.3 yrs
12	Colorado	15¢	$1,344	15.6 yrs
13	Texas	15¢	$1,260	16.7 yrs
14	Vermont	21¢	$1,260	16.7 yrs
15	Maryland	17¢	$1,229	17.1 yrs
16	New Jersey	18¢	$1,229	17.1 yrs
17	Florida	15¢	$1,218	17.2 yrs
18	Kansas	14¢	$1,208	17.4 yrs
19	Wisconsin	17¢	$1,183	17.8 yrs
20	District of Columbia	16¢	$1,181	17.8 yrs
21	Michigan	18¢	$1,181	17.8 yrs
22	Alabama	15¢	$1,176	17.9 yrs
23	Illinois	16¢	$1,138	18.5 yrs
24	Pennsylvania	17¢	$1,138	18.5 yrs
25	Delaware	15¢	$1,134	18.5 yrs
26	Minnesota	15¢	$1,134	18.5 yrs
27	Georgia	14¢	$1,127	18.6 yrs
28	South Carolina	14¢	$1,127	18.6 yrs
29	Utah	11¢	$1,120	18.8 yrs
30	Oklahoma	12¢	$1,103	19.0 yrs
31	Wyoming	12¢	$1,103	19.0 yrs
32	Alaska	24¢	$1,097	19.1 yrs
33	Indiana	15¢	$1,092	19.2 yrs
34	South Dakota	12.5¢	$1,091	19.2 yrs
35	Virginia	14¢	$1,087	19.3 yrs
36	Mississippi	13¢	$1,078	19.5 yrs
37	North Carolina	13¢	$1,078	19.5 yrs
38	Ohio	15.5¢	$1,072	19.6 yrs
39	Arkansas	12.5¢	$1,054	19.9 yrs
40	Missouri	12.5¢	$1,054	19.9 yrs
41	Nebraska	11.5¢	$1,040	20.2 yrs
42	Iowa	13¢	$1,040	20.2 yrs
43	Louisiana	12¢	$1,029	20.4 yrs
44	Tennessee	12.5¢	$1,016	20.7 yrs
45	West Virginia	14¢	$1,006	20.9 yrs
46	North Dakota	11.5¢	$1,005	20.9 yrs
47	Kentucky	13¢	$1,001	21.0 yrs
48	Montana	12¢	$992	21.2 yrs
49	Idaho	11¢	$945	22.2 yrs
50	Oregon	13¢	$886	23.7 yrs
51	Washington	11¢	$735	28.6 yrs

Methodology

Electricity prices are state residential averages (EIA). Solar production uses per-state yield bands from NREL PVWatts. We model a 7 kW system at $3.00/watt installed, value 50% of output at the retail rate (self-consumption) and 50% at a conservative 9¢/kWh export credit, and apply no federal tax credit (Section 25D expired December 31, 2025). Real payback varies with roof orientation, shading, self-consumption, and local net-metering and incentive programs. Full details on our methodology page.

Original analysis by ElectrifyPayback. Estimates only, not financial advice. Energy prices and incentives change frequently. You are welcome to cite or reproduce this ranking with attribution and a link to this page.